Due to the recent favorable weather conditions and in case of good weather from now onward, Turkey can harvest 16.5-17.5 mln tonnes of wheat in 2022/23 MY, including 3-3.5 mln tonnes of durum. The country produced 15.5 mln tonnes (2.5 mln tonnes) last season, declared Veysel Kaya, independent expert of SUNSEEDMAN within his presentation at Grain&Maritime Days in Istanbul 2022.
Moreover, V. Kaya forecasts barley crop at 6-6.5 mln tonnes in Turkey in 2022/23 MY, up from 4 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY. As to the corn production, it can stay unchanged at 6.5 mln tonnes or decrease to about 6 mln tonnes.
The expert noted that under normal barley production, Turkey imports only about 0.5-1 mln tonnes of the grain per year. Domestic production of wheat is nearly sufficient to cover Turkey’s demand, and the imports are mainly go for re-export, except those seasons, when own crop falls sizably. At the same time, own corn production is not enough to cover internal demand and the country usually buys about 2-3 mln tonnes of corn per year.
The Black Sea countries are the main supplier of grains to Turkey. Thus, the war in Ukraine has significant influence on origin, logistics and prices of grain coming to Turkey.