SovEcon once again raised its forecast of Russian wheat export. They pegged the exports at 34.3 mln tonnes for 2021/22 MY, up 0.2 mln tonnes compared to the previous expectations, informed ТАСС.
The upward revision of the forecast is based on high pace of wheat export from Russia.
“Russian wheat remains quite competitive in the light of growing world prices in the recent weeks and the devaluation of the ruble”, – the experts explained.
Additionally, they expect that the quota on export of wheat, that will be in force from February 15 to June 30, will be taken up fully or almost completely. They suppose that the risks of disruption of Black Sea wheat supplies are low.
“Possible decline of demand from importers and their shift to other origins can be a limiting factor. However, this scenario is just theoretical”, – they added.
The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia forecasts the export of grain at 45-48 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY. They have not provided any separate figures for wheat exports yet.