According to APK-Inform, at a time of Russian invasion to Ukraine that stopped shipments through ports, the overall untapped wheat export potential of these two countries totaled 13.4 mln tonnes.
Key exporting countries will find it difficult to offset such big deficit of wheat on the global market. Particularly, the EU will export 37.5 mln tonnes of wheat in 2021/22 MY (data by the USDA), but the block is expected to have the lowest in 5 years ending stocks – 9.9 mln tonnes compared to 10.9 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY and 13.1 mln tonnes in 2019/20 MY. It will unable any sizable growth of wheat export. The USA will also have the 5-year lowest stocks – 17.6 mln tonnes compared to almost 23 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY. In Canada, the ending stocks will fell from 5.7 mln tonnes last season to 3.1 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY.
Thus, only Australia, India, Argentina and Kazakhstan can at least partially offset the absence of the Black Sea supply. Australia is going to export 25.5 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY, up from 23.8 mln tonnes last season. Carry-over stocks will total 4.5 mln tonnes (4.3 mln tonnes last year). India can export record 7 mln tonnes of wheat in 2021/22 MY, and ending stocks can be at 26.1 mln tonnes (27.8 mln tonnes).
Argentina has quite good export potential at 14 mln tonnes for 2021/22 MY. However, the country’s authorities are aiming to regulate wheat prices that will not let Argentina to raise its export sizably.
APK-Inform forecasts Kazakhstan to export 6 mln tonnes of wheat in 2021/22 MY (5.8 mln tonnes last season). About 4 mln tonnes have already been shipped. The country can increase its wheat export only by 200-300 thsd tonnes. Moreover, it is the second largest exporter of wheat flour in the world. Kazakhstan can enlarge supply of flour to offset the deficit of food wheat.
Preliminary estimates say that the key exporters can increase wheat supply by 1.5-3 mln tonnes that is not enough to compensate the absence of Black Sea wheat.