The Ukrainian Grain Association has updated its forecast of grain and oilseeds production this year reducing it to 64.5 mln tonnes.
"First of all, it is based on a decrease by almost 1 mln ha (to 18 mln ha) of areas from which it is possible to harvest crops. Despite the tenacity and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are clear obstacles to trashing crops on mined and destroyed fields, occupied areas. The previous production forecast was at 69.4 mln tonnes", – experts said.
At the same time, according to UGA’s estimates, exports from Ukraine in 2022/23 MY may still amount to 32.8 mln tonnes, provided that the sea route is preserved and the capacity of land border checkpoints is expanded. With the available 26 mln tonnes of grain and oilseeds at the beginning of the season, the stocks will amount to 30.5 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY.
"We can expect a wheat harvest at 19 mln tonnes in Ukraine this year. The carry-over stocks of old-crop wheat amounted to more than 10 mln tonnes. Taking into account the large carry-over stocks, the export of wheat may amount to about 10 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY, and the ending stocks will reach 12 mln tonnes", – the association believes.
The UGA cut barley harvest forecast to 5.4 mln tonnes (10.1 mln tonnes in 2021), and export is expected at 2 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY.
The corn crop is seen at 24 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY (37.6 mln tonnes in 2021), while export may amount to about 10 mln tonnes.
The forecast for sunflower seed harvest remained at 9 mln tonnes (16.9 mln tonnes in 2021), export at 6 mln tonnes taking into account the carry-over stocks from last season of 5.8 mln tonnes. Sunflower seed processing can reach 7 mln tonnes (10 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY).
Rapeseed harvest previously amounted to 3 mln tonnes (2.9 mln tonnes in 2021), while export is expected to be 2.8 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY.
The soybean crop is forecast at 2.2 mln tonnes (3.5 mln tonnes in 2021), export at 1.8 mln tonnes.
"In general, the export of grain and oilseeds can reach the expected level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports remain operating. Exporting grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries that desperately need it. The lack of food and its high cost can cause famine, mass protests and riots in many poor countries, and as a result mass migration of people from African and Middle Eastern countries to the EU, the UN said. Even under the current conditions, we see a large food inflation in the world, and even in European countries it reaches 8-12%", – the UGA added.