In 2017/18 MY, the export volumes of Russian grains may reach the level of 50 mln tonnes, reported experts of the analytical center SovEcon on December 25.
According to SovEcon, in December 2017 the export rates demonstrated a record level for the first month of winter. So, during the first 20 days of December Russia exported 3.7 mln tonnes of grains, therefore in the reporting month the indicator will surely exceed the level of 5 mln tonnes, and break an absolute record of the monthly volumes of grain exports.
At the same time, figures of the Federal Customs Service do not cover the exports of pulses, rice, products in grain equivalent. Taking into account the reporting positions, in the first half of the season (July-December) Russia will ship at least 28 mln tonnes of grains on foreign markets, explained experts of the analytical center.
As for the forecasts for the second half of the season, SovEcon expected that the export rates in the reporting period will decrease, but to a lesser extent compared with previous years. In addition, in the second half of the season not only the Ural region, but also the Volga and Central regions, will demonstrate a record level of grain stocks. Such results will develop a material basis for supporting of high export volumes.
In addition, the measures for reduction of railway tariffs for grain transportation will support the export shipments from the remote regions which are distant from the ports, which would allow to replace the supplies from southern regions in proportion to their seasonal decreasing. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture established the operating regime for grain loading at elevators on weekends and holidays. In turn, the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) and the Federal Customs Service will continue certifying grains for exports in the New Year holidays.
Also, the current reduction of Australian wheat exports will provide an additional support to the Russian operations, and maintain large-scale deliveries of Russian wheat to Asia-Pacific countries which form the largest sales market of wheat.
In such conditions, keeping of the outrunning export rates at +25-30% in the second half of the season does not look unrealistic at all. Last season, in January-June period Russia exported 15.7 mln tonnes of grains. In terms of 30% growth, the figures can reach more than 20 mln tonnes of exports in the second half of the season, and nearly 50 mln tonnes per season, the experts added.
