In 2018/19 MY, the export potential of the Ukrainian grain market will increase to 41.2 mln tonnes (up 2.7% compared with the estimations of exports in the current marketing year), mainly at the expense of the growth of corn supplies to 20 mln tonnes, against 18 mln tonnes (up 11.1%). At the same time, the global competition in the reporting market segment is expected to strengthen, declared the grain market analyst at APK-Inform Agency, Andrei Kupchenko during his report at the seventeenth international conference Grain & Maritime Days in Odessa on May 25.
According to the USDA estimations, in 2018 the major countries-producers will increase corn production. So, China will increase corn production by 9.1 mln tonnes compared with the current MY, Brazil — up 8 mln tonnes, and Argentina — up 8 mln tonnes.
Also, Russia will significantly raise its corn production volumes — up 5.8 mln tonnes. Thus, only Brazil, Argentina and Russia will jointly increase corn supplying on the global market by 5.7 mln tonnes compared with the current season. Such situation will somewhat tighten the global competition rates, in terms of the expected decline in corn production (down 14.3 mln tonnes) and exports (down 3.2 mln tonnes) in the USA, and can put pressure on the prices, concluded A.Kupchenko.
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