Weather inequality causes the revision of grain production forecasts. What to happen in Ukraine?




According to APK-Inform, the planted areas under grains and pulses will reach 15 mln ha in Ukraine in 2020, including 7.6 mln ha planted with winter crops (-3% from the last year) and 7.4 mln ha under spring crops (-2%), informed the expert of the agency, Irina Ozip during the on-line conference “Ukraine. Russia. Kazakhstan. Updates and forecasts”.

Thus, the planted areas under wheat could decline by 4% to 6.5 mln ha. Taking to account the forecasted wheat yield at 3.89 t/ha, the crop production could decrease by 13% to 24.5 mln tonnes. Moreover, APK-Inform forecast the severe decline of barley sown area to 2.2 mln ha (-16%) in 2020. Barley production could reach 6.8 mln tonnes (-23%) with the yield at 3.2 t/ha.

At the same time, the areas under corn could increase by 4% to 5.2 mln ha, however, the lower yield at 6.89 t/ha (-4%) will lead to the crop production at 35.1 mln tonnes.

Thus, the production of grains and pulses could total 68.7 mln tonnes in Ukraine in 2020/21 MY, down 9% from the current season (71.5 mln tonnes). Under current weather conditions, the average grains yield could reach 4.72 t/ha, down 4% compared to 2019/20 MY (4.91 t/ha).

“Generally, now there are no marginal impact of major factors on future crop. However, the weather inequality increases risks and could lead to multiple revision of the forecasts”, - summarized the expert.