COVID-19 pandemic caused the most rapid decline of the global trade pace in the I quarter of 2020 since the global financial crisis of 2009, declared the Deputy Vice-President of the leading US investment company R.J. O'Brien, Zsolt Vincze during the online conference Grain&Maritime Days Online.
“This led to the collapse of the crude oil prices on the global market followed by depreciation of agricultural products. If we examine the price situation on the markets of the key corn exporters we see the most significant decline in Argentina, where corn prices decreased to less than 140 USD/t. The same price development was observed in the USA, Brazil, Ukraine”, - the expert added.
The speaker pointed out that the export of Brazilian corn declined to the lowest level over the last 3 years in April. COVID-19 pandemic as well as the seasonal factor caused the decrease of the export of corn from Brazil. At the same time, Argentina increased corn shipments to more than 4 mln tonnes that is much higher compared to the average level of the last 3 years (about 2.7 mln tonnes) as Argentinian grain was the most price competitive.
“As to the prospects of production and trade in new season, USDA forecast the production potential of Brazil at the record – near 47-48 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY, however, the export will not exceed the highest figure of 2018/19 MY (40 mln tonnes). Corn production in Argentina could match the level of the current year (20 mln tonnes) as well as export (34 mln tonnes) in 2020/21 MY”, - the speaker added.
US could strengthen its position on the global market of corn in 2020/21 MY, USDA forecast the growth of the share of US corn in the global trade from near 26% to 31%. The annual surplus of the global import of corn could increase to 7.2 mln tonnes from 5.1 mln tonnes in 2019/20 MY.