Black Sea grain exports in the season-2020/21: prospects & competition




According to the forecasts of APK-Inform analysts, in 2020/21 MY the general grain production in Ukraine will decrease by 9%, compared with the previous season, announced the Head of Business project unit at APK-Inform Agency, Andriy Kupchenko, within frames of the online conference GRAIN&MARITIME DAYS ONLINE-2020.

As for the forecasts of grain production in Ukraine in 2020/21 MY, APK-Inform has rather fairly restrained and conservative estimations. To date, the Agency estimated the figures at 68.7 mln tonnes of grains, down 9% compared with the previous season. As for wheat, the harvest volumes will decrease by 13%, barley — down 23%, and corn — down 2%. According to the analyst, the reporting figures can become the minimum possible ones, which can be formed in 2020.

Also, A.Kupchenko highlighted several key factors that impact on development of the Black Sea grain market.

As for the production, in the current terms the factor of agro-climatic conditions comes to the fore, which demonstrates its instability in the current year, and quite often disorientates the analysts, and makes difficult any forecasting.

Development of the global competition rates is the second key factor that affects the current work of the market segment, and will affect it during the whole new season.

As for the Black Sea region, it is the competition on the markets of key importers between Ukraine and Russia. Also, in the new season Australia can restore a certain share on the Asian market, which Ukraine usually covered for several recent years, A.Kupchenko explained.

In addition, the uncertainty in the post-quarantine development of the economy is another key factor that affects not only production, but also trade, the purchasing power of major importers, foreign currency exchange rates, etc.

You can become acquainted with more detailed information about development of the Black Sea grain market in the season-2020/21 from Andriy Kupchenko report during the online conference Grain&Maritime Days Online, whose video fragment is already available on APK-Inform Youtube-channel.