Export potential of Ukrainian barley in next season is in doubt yet – APK-Inform

Source

APK-Inform

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According to the forecast of APK-Inform, Ukraine will harvest 6.8 mln tonnes of barley in 2020/21 MY, while the export of crop could total 3.6 mln tonnes. These figures are based on rather difficult weather conditions during spring vegetation and damage to the crop made by April frosts, moreover, APK-Inform forecast is sharply lower than that of USDA.

USDA forecasts the production of Ukrainian barley at 9.4 mln tonnes, and its export at 5 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY. They put Ukraine at 4th place among the TOP producers of barley in the world with the share at 6%. At the same time, Ukraine was placed the second in the list of leading barley exporters with 20% share. Thus, according to USDA, Ukraine would ship on the global market every fifth tonne of barley.

USDA forecasts the global barley production at 155.3 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY, down insignificantly from 2019/20 MY (156.3 mln tonnes). Global export of barley could reach 25.3 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY, down 262 thsd tonnes only.

USDA expects that the leading importers of barley – Saudi Arabia and China – will lower the grain import by 500 thsd tonnes each – to 7 mln tonnes and 5 mln tonnes correspondingly that will intensify the competition between exporters. Taking to account possible growth of barley export from the EU and Australia it will be difficult for Ukraine to reach the export potential forecasted by USDA.

 

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