APK-Inform revised down its forecast of corn production to 35.1 mln tonnes in Ukraine in 2020 due to the current weather conditions. The updated figure is 8% lower compared to the previous forecast and 2% lower than in 2019.
“Drought is the main reason of downward revision. Dry conditions were observed across most of the country during August. The driest condition were observed in central part of the country where the main areas under corn are located. We suppose that more than 40% of corn was impacted by the adverse weather, thus we lowered our yield estimate to 6.71 t/ha compared to 7.19 t/ha in 2019/20 MY”, - the Head of the Business project unit at APK-Inform, Andriy Kupchenko said.
He added that this downward revision was rather moderate. High level of localization of abnormal weather conditions and crop damage as well as extension of planted area under corn by more than 30% in those regions that suffered less were positive for corn crop prospects.
“Corn export will reach 28.5 ml tonnes in 2020/21 MY, down 3% compared to 2019/20 MY. Any weather changes in September-October could lead to decline of harvested area and deterioration of corn yield that will cause further downward revision of supply and demand balance”, - the expert added.