According to experts’ estimation, about 5-7 mln tonnes of corn was bought via forward contracts in Ukraine. 2-2.5 mln tonnes out of this volume had to be exported in October. However, there are reasons to suppose that some deals will not be fulfilled amid current prices and harvesting progress as well as reserved farmers’ selling.
“It is not a surprise. This year market participants started to conclude contracts for delivery of new-crop corn earlier than usually. Spread between initial forward prices of corn and current at that moment prices of current deliveries of corn doubled (due to overestimated crop prospects). Then August came and everything changed radically”, - the head of the local markets department of APK-Inform, Anna Tanskaya commented.
According to APK-Inform, Ukraine exported 1.23 mln tonnes during October 1-27, down 37.6% compared to the same period of 2019/20 MY, but up 21% compared to the same period of 2018/19 MY. APK-Inform expect corn export to reach 1.3 mln tonnes for the full month that matches the average figure of the last 8 years (1.37 mln tonnes).
More detailed information about Ukrainian export corn market development you can find in our article “Deal or default?! How one of the largest global corn exporter faces defaults” to be published at our web-site tomorrow in section Exclusive/Topic.
This issue to be discussed within online conference Corn-2020: Deal or default?! to be held on November 5 on ZOOM platform. The aim of the conference is to fairly highlight the burning and complex topic and provide importers with true information as they started to ask the hard questions.