APK-Inform expects corn production to decline to 31.8 mln tonnes in Ukraine in 2020, despite the record planted area at 5.5 mln ha. Dry weather in August-September harmed corn crop in the key regions is the main reason for production decline. Lower crop will result in 12% decrease of export potential of Ukrainian corn to 25.2 mln tonnes.
At the same time, there is a deficit of latest information on harvesting campaign progress. This may result in downward revision of corn production and export potentials in November-December.
The experts pointed out that a long-time dynamics of corn production in Ukraine showed volatility with general upward trend. Corn production have increased by more than 3.4 times over the last 10 years from 10.5 mln tonnes in 2009/10 MY to 35.9 mln tonnes in 2019/20 MY on wider planted area and yield improvement. The decline of Ukrainian corn crop by 4.1 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY is not critical taking into account the overall dynamics of production in the resent seasons. For example, Ukraine harvested as low as 24.7 mln tonnes in 2017/18 MY.
Export of Ukrainian corn has been growing by annual 30% over the last 10 years. The country shipped 28.7 mln tonnes of corn in 2019/20 MY, down only 4% compared to the record volume exported in 2018/19 MY (30 mln tonnes, up 5.7 times compared to 2009/2010 MY). The share of export totaled 80% in the overall structure of corn supply in Ukraine last season.
