Crop and carry-over stocks are vastly overestimated in Ukraine - ARIA COMMODITIES




The production and feed consumption of corn in Ukraine in 2020/21 MY are vastly overestimated, said the director of ARIA COMMODITIES UKRAINE, Oleg Levchenko to APK-Inform.

“We see this in bulk of expert estimations including those made by the Ministry for Development of Economy. Crop at 29-30 mln tonnes is unreal as well as large carry-over stocks. It is based on an unaccounted actual reduction of planted area under corn and decrease of its yield. I saw many corn fields in different regions of Ukraine, and I saw how many fields were re-plowed as there was nothing to harvest. Thus, the harvested area under corn was not higher than 5 mln ha. I think, Ukraine produced 27.5 mln tonnes of corn at best in 2020/21 MY. The export will not exceed 22 mln tonnes. It is confirmed by official stocks that are declared now”, - O.Levchenko supposes.

He says that the annual production of compound feed is about 6 mln tonnes in Ukraine, including basically 2 mln tonnes of protein group (sunflower and soybean meals), products with high fiber content (like barley) added by formula, and the main ingredient are feed corn and wheat in proportion 60-70:40-30 depending on prices. For most of the season, feed wheat was more expensive than corn. Now the situation changed and the stocks of feed wheat are almost depleted in Ukraine. Thus, the consumption of corn can reach 3 mln tonnes at best, and feed wheat 1 mln tonnes.

“It is important to understand that MHP produced about 2 mln tonnes of compound feed for its own needs. Other producers give 4 mln tonnes, only 10 of them are large companies. I can assume that these 6 mln tonnes registered by livestock producers do not include about 1 mln tonnes of feed grain that theoretically can be consumed by livestock of population, but its number is declining. Feed consumption is declining in Ukraine. I think the food consumption has decreased as well due to the pandemic. Corn consumption is about 3.5 mln tonnes out of maximum 7 mln tonnes of feed grain consumption. Thus, taking into account all these factors and crop at 27.5 mln tonnes as well as 1 mln tonnes of corn for industrial purposes, I think that the carry-over stocks of corn will reach 0.5 mln tonnes at best in Ukraine this season”, - O.Levchenko summarized.