Wheat flour is the key food products traded among the countries of Central Asia, and Kazakhstan is the largest supplier of flour. According to the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the country exported 1.7 mln tonnes of wheat flour in 2020/21 MY, up 8.2% compared to the preceding season (1.5 mln tonnes, the lowest in 11 years).
Traditionally, Afghanistan is the key importers of milling products from Kazakhstan. In 2020/21 MY, supply of Kazakhs flour to Afghanistan amounted to 1.15 mln tonnes, up 25.7% year-on-year. Therefore, the share of Afghanistan reached 68.8% in the overall structure of Kazakh flour export (59.2% in 2019/20 MY).
Uzbekistan traditionally takes the second position among the largest importers of Kazakh flour. The import of Kazakh flour to Uzbekistan used to decline along with the growing import of wheat. However, the import of flour increased in 2020/21 MY as well to 356.6 thsd tonnes, up 3.1% compared to the previous season.
Taking to account the current weather conditions, APK-Inform forecasts that wheat production will decline to 12.7 mln tonnes in Kazakhstan in 2021/22 MY. This will cut the export potential of both wheat (to 5.3 mln tonnes from 5.8 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY) and flour (to 1.5 mln tonnes from 1.7 mln tonnes). Besides, taking into account the political situation in Afghanistan, the trade flows toward this county can change. Thus, the share of Afghanistan can reduce in the export structure of Kazakh flour, while the supplies to Uzbekistan can increase.
You can get more detailed information about further development of agricultural markets of Central Asia within the international conference Asia Grains&Oils Conference in Tashkent (September 8-10).
