USDA estimates wheat import to Egypt at 12.5 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY. APK-Inform says Ukraine supplied 2.5 mln tonnes of the grain to Egypt, Russia - 8.1 mln tonnes. The common share of two countries amounted to 85%.
Wheat import to Egypt declined by 2% in 2020/21 MY year-on-year. However, it matched the three-year average. Shipments from Ukraine decreased by 34% due to the lower crop size. At the same time, supplies from Russia grew by 28%.
USDA forecast wheat import to Egypt will amount to 13 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY (+4% year-on-year). APK-Inform says Ukrainian wheat crop will reach a record high of 31.2 mln tonnes in 2021/22 MY (+26%) that will let the country to export 21 mln tonnes of the grain (+26%). At the same time, the production of Russian wheat will decline by 9%. However, quite high carry-over stocks will allow the country to ship 38 mln tonnes of wheat in 2021/22 MY, the same as the year ago.
Therefore, Ukraine and Russia is likely to maintain their high share in Egypt’s wheat import and will be able to cover the growing demand. Ukraine and Russia shipped about 450 thsd tonnes of wheat to Egypt in the first month of 2021/22 MY, that matched the last year level (446 thsd tonnes). However, export from Ukraine declined by 33% year-on-year in July 2021 to 112 thsd tonnes amid late start of the harvesting campaign and reserved farmers’ selling. This decline was fully offset by higher supplies from Russian wheat that reached 338 thsd tonnes compared to 281 thsd tonnes in July 2020. Further, the share of key Black Sea suppliers can change depending on price situation.