In March update, APK-Inform cut Ukrainian grain export potential for 2021/22 MY by 29% to 44 mln tonnes. It is 3% lower than Ukraine exported in 2020/21 MY.
Since the start of 2021/22 MY and until the Russian military invasion in Ukraine, 7 months of wheat and barley season had passed. On average, Ukraine exports about 80% of wheat and 89% of barley within this period. For corn, 5 months of the season had passed. Usually, the country ships about 53% of corn within this period. In 2021/22 MY, Ukraine exported 81% of wheat, 95% of barley and 60% of corn.
The Russian invasion resulted in full suspension of operation of Ukrainian seaports. Ukraine used to ship 99% of total grain exports through ports. Higher transportation of grain by railway through western borders allows some exports. However, railway capacity is much lower compared to ports. Additionally, further export of Ukrainian wheat and barley is limited by virtually no demand from the EU.
“Therefore, we cut our forecast of wheat export potential by 19% to 18.3 mln tonnes, barley – by 5% to 5.7 mln tonnes, corn – by 36% to 19.4 mln tonnes”, – the analysts said.
More detailed information about our forecasts for 2021/22 MY export as well as prospects for 2022/23 MY you can find here.