The IGC cut their forecast of Ukraine wheat export for 2021/22 MY in its monthly update. Due to logistical challenges on existing land and river routes, recent exports by Ukraine fell short of expectations, with full-year dispatches now seen at 18.8 mln tonnes, 0.5 mln tonnes lower m/m.
As to the season 2022/23, the IGC said that timely rainfall had partly alleviated concerns about moisture deficits in parts of Ukraine. Amid significant uncertainty about crop management, area and yield estimates are highly speculative. Production is provisionally forecast at 19.4 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY, down 41% y/y.
Future exports by Ukraine remain highly uncertain due to ongoing hostilities. While much will hinge on the timeline for the resumption of deep-sea port operations and efforts to streamline logistics on alternative routes, the country's exports are placed at 10.0 mln tonnes, the least in nine years and 1 mln tonnes lower m/m.