UGA raised forecast of grains and oilseeds production in Ukraine




The Ukrainian Grain Association raised its forecast of grains and oilseeds production this year from 64.5 mln tonnes to 67.5 mln tonnes due to the increase in the harvesting area and the improvement of the average yield from 3.57 t/ha to 3.64 t/ha.

"Under these conditions, export from Ukraine may amount to 47.5 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY provided that the sea export route is preserved until the end of the season. With carry-over stocks at the beginning of the season at 26 mln tonnes of grains and oilseeds, the ending stocks will amount to 19.2 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY", – the analysts added.

Wheat harvest totaled to 19.3 mln tonnes in Ukraine this year. The carry-over stocks of wheat of the last harvest amounted to more than 10 mln tonnes. Export of wheat may amount to about 13 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY taking into account large carry-overs. The ending stocks will reach 6.9 mln tonnes.

The estimate of barley harvest was improved to 5.6 mln tonnes, and export in 2022/23 MY can amount to 2 mln tonnes. The corn harvest this season can be expected at 24 mln tonnes, while export may amount to about 20 mln tonnes, and ending stocks to 7.8 mln tonnes.

"Sunflower crop is expected at almost 10 mln tonnes, and export at 6 mln tonnes taking into account the carry-over stocks from last season at 5.8 mln tonnes", – the experts added.

The rapeseed harvest preliminary amounted to 3.15 mln tonnes, while export in 2022/23 MY is expected at 2.8 mln tonnes. The UGA expects the soybean production at almost 3.6 mln tonnes, and export in 2022/23 MY at 3.5 mln tonnes.

"Our preliminary forecast of the grains and oilseeds harvest for next year is 53.2 mln tonnes, and exports can reach 39.7 mln tonnes. Everything will depend on the conditions under which Ukrainian farmers will be able to carry out spring planting campaign, and later harvesting campaign", – the UGA summarized.