Forecasted soybean crushing decline in 2023/24 MY picked up CBOT futures




In the June report, USDA analysts updated the forecast of soybean processing in the world in 2023/24 MY – from 332.31 mln tonnes announced the previous month to 331.91 mln tonnes, which is still significantly higher than the expected result in 2022/23 MY (312.2 mln tonnes).

In particular, the soybean processing forecast for Argentina was reduced by 0.5 mln tonnes to 36 mln tonnes (+6 mln tonnes y-o-y).

Adjustments to global oilseed crushing in 2023/24 MY boosted soybean and soybean oil futures for the most active July contract on the CBOT exchange according to the results of trading on June 9 – up to $509.4 (+$8.5) per tonne and $1,203.5 (+$46.1) per tonne, respectively. However, already on June 10, futures fell (-$5.1 per tonne to $504.3 per tonne for soybeans and -$13.4 per tonne, to $1190.1 per tonne for soybean oil) due to the current low demand for products of US origin.

Global final soybean stocks in 2023/24 MY have been increased – from 122.5 to 123.3 mln tonnes. High ending stocks are expected in the US at 9.52 (+0.4) mln tonnes, Brazil at 40.8 (+0.5) mln tonnes and the EU at 1.78 (+0.2) mln tonnes, while for Argentina, the indicator was reduced to 23.95 (-0.1) mln tonnes.

Global soybean production forecast was left nearly unchanged – at 410.7 (+0.1) mln tonnes, mainly due to the upward adjustment for the EU – to 3.22 (+0.1) mln tonnes. At the same time, analysts increased the soybean crop forecast in 2022/23 MY for Brazil by 1 mln tonnes to 156 mln tonnes, while for Argentina it was reduced by 2 mln tonnes to 25 mln tonnes.