According to the updated APK-Inform data, in 2022/23 MY, Ukraine processed 13.9 mln tonnes of sunflower seed, 20% higher compared to season-2021/22 and 4% higher against 2020/21 MY.
"Despite the reduction of the harvest in 2022 to a seven-year low, strong processing volumes were a result of a record carry-over stocks at the beginning of the 2022/23 MY, which we estimate at 3.5 mln tonnes," – notes Svitlana Kirichok, the oilseed market analyst of APK-Inform Agency.
She forecast that in the new season (2023/24 MY), the processing of oilseeds will most likely decrease due to the reduction of the total supply of sunflower seeds on the domestic market.
Thus, according to the updated APK-Inform forecast, in 2023, in Ukraine the production will increase to 13.4 mln tonnes (+7% by 2022). However, as a result of the carry-over stocks reduction by 98%, the total supply will be lowered by 16%. Hence, the volume of sunflower seed processing in 2023/24 MY may be about 12.4 mln tonnes (-11%), but will depend on a number of factors.
First of all, these are the rates and volumes of sunflower seed exports. It is worth noting that the EU Commission decided not to extend the ban on the import of Ukrainian agriproducts to 5 EU countries after September 15. But Poland, Hungary and Slovakia unilaterally extended this ban. At the same time, export of Ukrainian sunflower seed to Bulgaria and Romania will most likely resume in the near future, as evidenced by the increased activity of export-oriented companies in this direction. This may lead to stronger competition for raw materials on the domestic market, and may also provide support to prices, which have fallen by more than 4`000-5`000 UAH/t in almost 2 weeks of the harvesting campaign, the expert notes.
Another significant influencing factor is the rate of sunflower oil export, which will depend on the capacity of alternative export routes.
We will talk in more detail about the Ukrainian market of oilseeds and byproducts, as well as export prospects, at the XXI international conference "Fat&Oil Industry-2023", which will be held on October 23 in Lviv (Ukraine).
You can register on the APK-Inform website.