For 8 months of the season, Russia can export more than 46 mln tonnes of grain – forecast




For the first 8 months of 2023/24 MY (July-February), Russia can export about 46.6 mln tonnes of grain. This forecast was expressed by Igor Pavensky, head of the agricultural markets analysis department of Rusagrotrans JSC, reports Finmarket.

“This is much more y-o-y (38.7 mln tonnes). The forecast for the entire 2023/24 MY is 66.7 mln tonnes, and taking into account pulses (3.46 mln tonnes) and flour (1.6 mln tonnes), the total figure will be 71.8 mln tonnes,” the analyst said.

As I. Pavensky reminded, in August 2023, Russian grain exports reached a record monthly figure of 6.98 mln tonnes. Only 4.65 mln tonnes were exported in November due to bad weather, the lowest since 2021, but shipments recovered to 5.33 mln tonnes in December.

Wheat exports from July 2023 to February 2024 could reach 35.6 mln tonnes, an increase of 3.7 mln tonnes compared to the same period last season. The estimate of wheat exports for the entire current season is 52.5 mln tonnes.

The expert forecasts, that barley shipments in the current MY may increase to 7.2 mln tonnes from 5.6 mln tonnes a year earlier, corn – to 6.2 mln tonnes from 6 mln tonnes, pulses – to 3.46 mln tonnes from 2.08 mln tonnes respectively.

“From July 2023 to January 2024, the share of Russian wheat amounted to 70-90% of imports to Turkey, Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Kenya. In particular, in terms of supplies to Turkey it increased from 70% to 89%, to Egypt it decreased from 74% to 66%, “but will recover in the coming months”, to Bangladesh it increased from 34% to 70%, to Pakistan it decreased from 74% to 67%, in Kenya it increased from 57% to 90%,” I. Pavensky clarified.