Russian consultancy SovEcon raised slightly their forecast of Russian wheat export in 2022/23 MY, Prime reports.
Wheat export prospects were raised by 0.1 mln tonnes to 44.2 mln tonnes.
SovEcon expects wheat shipments to be record high in January-February due to the weaker ruble and generally favorable conditions for exporters amid high domestic stocks and current high demand.
According to SovEcon, Russia exported 26.4 mln tonnes of wheat in July-January 2022/23 MY. The shipments may amount to 17.8 mln tonnes in February-June.
“Expected strong Russian export in the first half of 2023 will sizably pressure the prices on the global market”, - the experts forecast.
At the same time, weather conditions and infrastructure restrictions as well as competition from Australia may limit the export of Russian wheat.
“In December, Australia increased wheat export by 50% to 2.5 mln tonnes due to record high production. Geography of wheat supplies are widening and now covers some destinations in the Middle East important for Russia, such as Yemen, Jordan and Oman”, - SovEcon said.
SovEcon cut their forecast of export of grains, pulses and by-products from Russia in 2022/23 MY by 0.2 mln tonnes to 55.1 mln tonnes amid smaller expectations for barley (5.6 mln tonnes) and corn (3.4 mln tonnes).