Ukrainian corn carry-over stocks to raise by 70% in 2020/21 MY




State Statistic Service of Ukraine published its final estimation of grains and pulses production in 2020. The data says Ukraine harvested 64.9 mln tonnes of grains and pulses last year, down by 14% compared to 2019, including 24.9 mln tonnes of wheat (-12%), 7.6 mln tonnes of barley (-14%) and 30.3 mln tonnes of corn (-16%).

Despite the sizable decline, the corn crop turned to be the second largest on record. It allows covering fully the domestic demand for corn and forming significant export potential. APK-Inform estimates Ukrainian corn export at 23.2 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY.

“Ukraine exported 15.9 mln tonnes of corn in October-March of 2020/21 MY, down by 25% compared to the same period of the last year. Quite stable domestic consumption (6 mln tonnes in 2020/21 MY and 6.4 mln tonnes in 2019/20 MY) will result in 2.7 mln tonnes of carry-over stocks this season, up by 70% compared to 2019/20 MY (1.6 mln tonnes)”, - the experts say.

Accumulation of such large stocks should pressure the prices. Nevertheless, the upward trend is still prevailing the Ukrainian corn market as of late April 2021 and the prices of corn exceed the prices of wheat, as farmers are still reserved sellers.