Ukraine plays an important role on the global market of wheat, corn and barley. The USDA estimates Ukrainian share in the world wheat production structure at 4%, barley – 7% and corn – 3% in 2021/22 MY. According to May USDA’s forecast, Ukraine will remain among TOP-10 producers of major grains in 2022/23 MY, however, its share in the overall output will decrease from 4% to 2% amid lower planted area, as farmers cannot plant across territories under ongoing hostiles.
According to the updated forecast by APK-Inform, Ukraine will harvest 48.3 mln tonnes of grains in 2022/23 MY, down 44% y/y. Particularly, wheat production will decrease by 47% to 17.1 mln tonnes, barley – by 47% to 5 mln tonnes and corn – by 40% to 25.2 mln tonnes.
Wheat export is seen at 12.3 mln tonnes (down 35% y/y), barley – 1.2 mln tonnes (down 79%) and corn – 25.7 mln tonnes (up 22% amid large carry-over stocks, as Ukrainian corn export is far from its potential in 2021/22 MY).
