According to the official data of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, sunflower seed was successfully planted on 4.7 mln ha in 2022 under war conditions (-29% compared to 2021). It is the lowest sowing area since 2011, but above our initial expectations by almost 12%.
The production of sunflower seed will depend primarily on the development of the situation in the country, and the percentage of harvested area can be significantly adjusted since there is ongoing shelling of the front-line territories, including agricultural areas. Significant field damages are recorded in Kharkiv (5% in the total sunflower seed planting area in 2022), Donetsk (4%), Mykolaiv (7%), Dnepropetrovsk (13%) and other oblasts.
According to official services, the territories are promptly cleared of mines where it is possible. However, in general, the impact on the final production number can be significant.
According to preliminary estimates by APK-Inform, sunflower production may reach about 10 mln tonnes, which is 39% lower than in 2021 and may become the lowest in 10 years.
However, the production decrease will be partially offset by significant carry-overstocks of sunflower seed (about 3.5 mln tonnes). As a result, the total supply of sunflower seed in 2022/23 season will be at about 13.5 mln tonnes, which is only 1.5 mln tonnes less than the average of the previous 5 seasons.
Join FOC: Fats and Oils Conference that will be held on June 24 in Almaty.
Within the event, A. Kupchenko, analyst at APK-Inform, will share his forecasts for the development of the Ukrainian oilseed market in the new realities.
Contact organizing committee of the conference for any details:
+7 777 471 21 75