According to the updated forecast by APK-Inform, in 2023, the planted area under oilseeds in Ukraine can be increased to 8.28 mln ha, up by 3% y/y. Moreover, the share of the harvesting area under oilseeds may increase to 98-99% against 95% in 2022.
Bigger planted area in 2023 will mainly be due to the reduction of the area under grains in Ukraine and will also happen due to the de-occupation of part of Ukrainian territories in 2022. The extension of the planted area will mainly apply to sunflower seed and soybean.
In 2023, the potential of sunflower seed production may increase due to the expansion of the planted area to 5.3-5.4 mln ha (+8-9% compared to 2022). At the same time, the intensity and speed of demining of the de-occupied territories, in particular the Kherson and Kharkiv oblasts, will be a significant influencing factor.
The yield of sunflower seed may also increase compared to the previous year, despite the possible reduction of application of fertilizers, pesticides, etc., because the planting dates were significantly postponed in 2022 due to the war, difficulties with the delivery of seeds and rather cool weather.
Thus, sunflower seed production may increase to 12.3 mln tonnes (+12%) in 2023, but will depend on the further development of military operations, weather conditions and supply of seeds.
According to the preliminary forecast by APK-Inform, the planted area under soybean will be expanded to 1.6-1.7 mln ha (+7%), which will be due to the high liquidity of the crop as well as less dependence on import of seeds in comparison with other oilseeds.
At the same time, rapeseed production may decrease in 2023, but not significantly. According to preliminary estimates, the planted area may amount to about 1.2 mal ha, which is 18% lower y/y. But, taking into account the significant loss of rapeseed acreage in Ukraine in the spring of 2022 as a result of hostilities, the harvested area in 2023 may decrease by only 1% compared to the 2022.
