The Ukrainian Grain Association has updated the estimate of the potential harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine this year, increasing it by 7.8 mln tonnes to 76.8 mln tonnes. Also, the updated figure exceeds the result of last year, when the harvest reached 73.8 mln tonnes, the UGA press service reported on August 3.
"The increase in the forecast for this year's harvest is caused by favorable weather conditions and a better crop yield than expected, although the planted area is smaller than last year by 2.2 mln ha," the message states.
Under these conditions, exports from Ukraine in the 2023/24 MY can potentially amount to almost 48 mln tonnes. Last season, according to UGA, exports reached 58 mln tonnes.
"UGA especially emphasizes that, in general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2023/24 MY can be expected at the specified level, if Ukraine can export through its Black Sea ports, as well as under the condition of improving and reducing the cost of logistics of alternative routes, including the Danube route," - added to the association.
As for the пкфшті, wheat production assessment was increased from 17.9 to 20.2 mln tonnes. The potential export of grain in 2023/24 MY may amount to about 15 mln tonnes, taking into account the fact that at the beginning of the season, carry-over stocks amounted to 4.3 mln tonnes.
"Barley production number was also increased – from 4.4 to 5.2 mln tonnes, and the potential export in 2023/24 MY can be expected at the level of 2.6 mln tonnes. Expectations for the corn harvest in the new season have improved from 24.2 to 26.9 mln tonnes, while exports may amount to about 22 mln tonnes," experts said.
In 2023, sunflower seeds harvest is also expected to be higher – the estimate was increased from 12.7 to 13.9 mln tonnes, and potential export may amount to 1.1 mln tonnes. Sunflower oil processing is estimated at 12.5 mln tonnes.
"We preliminarily estimate the rapeseed harvest in 2023 at 3.9 mln tonnes, while export in 2023/24 MY is expected at the level of 3.7 mln tonnes. Soybean harvest was increased from 4.4 to 4.8 mln tonnes, and the potential export in the current season may reach 3.3 mln tonnes," the message summarizes.